Impact of Non-oil Import and Export Trade on Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Econometric Analysis

Abstract

The study examined the impact of non-oil import and export trade on economic growth in Nigeria for the period of 1981-2022. The study employed the econometric tools for testing for the existence of unit root in the time series variables and found that the variables are all stationary at order one I(I). The OLS regression result showed that non-oil import-export has significant impact on the economic growth in Nigeria within the period under study. The study found out that while exchange rate and inflation have significant impact on the growth of Nigeria economy, the interest rate has no significant impact on the Nigeria economy within the period of the study. The study concluded that non-oil import-export trade impact significantly and positively on the rate of economic growth in Nigeria, therefore a fast growing non-oil sector is required. The study recommends that major policies have to be reformed to ensure long run impact of non-oil import and export to economic growth. The study recommends that appropriate trade and foreign exchange policies in favour of non-oil export expansion should be encouraged. In addition, proper implementation of non-oil import control measures that will certainly sharpen the understanding of the determinants of import behaviour.