Infrastructure, Industrial Growth and Social Inclusion: An ARDL Cointegration Analysis of Nigeria

Abstract

Understanding the dynamic relationship between infrastructure, industrial performance, and inclusive development remains a central concern in contemporary development economics. In many emerging economies, infrastructure investment is widely recognised as a key driver of productivity growth, structural transformation, and improved welfare. However, evidence on how infrastructural development simultaneously shapes industrial expansion and social inclusion remains limited, particularly within country-specific time-series contexts. This study provides an econometric assessment of the infrastructure–development nexus using a dynamic modelling approach. It applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration framework to examine both short-run and long-run relationships among infrastructural development, manufacturing performance, and social inclusion. Nigeria offers a compelling case due to persistent infrastructure deficits, uneven industrial performance, and enduring social inequality. Using annual data from 1990 to 2023, the study evaluates how infrastructure influences manufacturing value added and inclusive development through dynamic adjustment mechanisms.