Budget Release and Expenditure Efficiency across Government Programmes in Uganda: Evidence from the FY 2024/25 Semi-Annual Budget Performance Report

Abstract

Public financial management plays a critical role in ensuring that government resources are allocated and utilised efficiently to achieve national development objectives. Despite extensive public financial management reforms in Uganda, concerns remain regarding budget credibility, expenditure efficiency, budget absorption, and the timely implementation of government programmes. This study examined budget release and expenditure efficiency across government programmes in Uganda using secondary data extracted from the FY 2024/25 Semi-Annual Budget Performance Report. A quantitative cross-sectional design was employed using 336 vote-programme observations. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, paired-sample t-tests, one-way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), and Spearman's rank correlation at the 5% significance level. The descriptive analysis showed an average budget release of UGX 81.06 billion and an average expenditure of UGX 97.40 billion across government programmes. Inferential analyses revealed no statistically significant difference between budget releases and actual expenditures (p = 0.464), budget absorption rates (p = 0.620), budget releases across programmes (p = 0.999), or unspent budget balances (p = 0.631). Similarly, no statistically significant relationship was found between budget releases and budget absorption rates (r = –0.066, p = 0.228). The findings suggest that budget release levels alone do not determine expenditure efficiency. Instead, institutional capacity, procurement efficiency, planning quality, and financial management systems appear to exert greater influence on programme implementation and budget absorption. The study recommends strengthening institutional capacity, procurement planning, expenditure monitoring, and programme implementation oversight to improve expenditure efficiency and enhance the effectiveness of Uganda's programme-based budgeting framework.