Evaluating The Impact Of Climate Change On The Blue Economy's Potential For Poverty Reduction In Lokoja, Nigeria: Research And Policy Implications

Abstract

This study evaluates the impact of climate change on the blue economy’s potential for poverty reduction among riparian communities at the confluence of Rivers Niger and Benue in Lokoja, Nigeria. Using a quantitative cross-sectional research design, primary data were collected through structured questionnaires administered to fishermen and boat/ferry operators. The research is limited by unknown population size due to unregistered blue economy operators in the study area. Non-response bias is handled through repeated questionnaire administration in the study area to ensure significant coverage of respondents. Descriptive statistics and the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression were employed to analyze the data for this study. Findings revealed that fishing is more affected by climate change than water transportation. However, the impact of climate change on blue economy output and poverty reduction is not significant (p =0.682 and p =0.720 respectively). Furthermore, blue economy activities is revealed to have maintained stability in terms output and income and contributes to reduction of poverty in the study area. The adaptation strategies commonly adopted by operators included changing fishing times and locations, adherence to weather forecasts, and livelihood diversification. The study recommended the organization of cooperatives by operators to improve access to loans, insurance services and government intervention. The National Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA) Lokoja should facilitate the provision of timely weather information (weather forecasts, flood alerts, and river levels) to operators of the blue economy; rehabilitate jetties and fish landing sites; and provide fishing gear, safer boats, and life jackets at affordable prices to operators.